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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."